The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west-northwest will weaken by Tuesday, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. This will result in Tomas slowing from its current 14 mph forward speed to 5 mph by Tuesday afternoon. By Thursday, the trough to Tomas’ north should be able to pull the storm to the north or north-northeast. The exact timing and location of this turn is still uncertain, but the computer models have come into better agreement that Haiti or Jamaica are the most likely targets of Tomas. NHC is giving Port A Prince, Haiti, a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 5% chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are slightly lower for Kingston, Jamaica–29% and 4%, respectively.